Sweden gradually increases bond supply

Press release 25 May 2023

Although the budget balance has so far developed more strongly this year than foreseen, the Debt Office still expects a budget deficit for the central government in 2023. Next year, expenditure will increase and the deficit will grow. To meet the greater deficit and upcoming redemptions, the Debt Office will gradually increase the government bond borrowing, starting this August.

“After the unexpectedly strong development of central government finances in the beginning of this year, we project a weaker budget balance ahead. This contributes to the Debt Office increasing the supply of government bonds, but we are doing so at a slow pace and the central government debt will remain at a low level,” says Debt Office Director General Karolina Ekholm.

The Debt Office expects the Swedish economy to shrink this year in light of the persistent high inflation and rising interest rates. Next year, the economy is expected to grow again, albeit at a moderate pace. Compared with the forecast from February, household consumption in current prices and higher payroll have a positive effect on the budget balance ahead.

As a result of the stronger-than-expected budget balance since the February forecast, the Debt Office now foresees a smaller budget deficit for the full year. Next year, higher expenditure instead contributes to a greater deficit than in the previous forecast. In addition, the state may need to make a capital contribution to the Riksbank. However, such a contribution is not included in the forecast because both its timing and amount are uncertain.

More government bonds and fewer treasury bills

The Debt Office will start slowly increasing the supply of nominal government bonds this year and then further increase it at the turn of the year. At the same time, the stock of treasury bills will be lower than in the previous forecast, mainly because the auction volume has already been reduced as a result of the stronger budget outcome. But the Debt Office is also redistributing some of the treasury-bill funding to nominal government bonds. The plan for inflation-linked bonds and foreign currency bonds remains unchanged.

Central government debt unchanged as GDP share

The central government debt remains at 18 per cent of GDP this year and the next.

The general government debt, called the Maastricht debt, is expected to be 31 per cent of GDP for 2023, and then increase to 32 per cent in 2024. The Maastricht measure is used in international comparisons and for the debt anchor of 35 per cent of GDP (±5 percentage points) in the fiscal policy framework.

Debt Office’s forecast – key figures

 Note: Previous forecast in parentheses.

Note: Previous forecast on parentheses.

 Note: Previous forecast in parenteses.

Report: Central Government Borrowing – Forecast and Analysis 2023:2

The report will be presented at a virtual press conference today, 25 May at 10:00 a.m. Follow the live stream at www.riksgalden.se (in Swedish only).

Journalists can e-mail questions to press@riksgalden.se. Questions asked directly before and during the press conference will be answered during the live stream. For further information or interview requests, contact the Debt Office's press function: +46 (0) 8 613 47 01, press@riksgalden.se.

The preliminary publishing date for this year’s third and final Central Government Borrowing report is 26 October 2023.